What sits in the blind spot of a good strategy?

A strategy can be well-researched, commercially sound, and tightly governed, yet six months later, the implementation is stalling.

We usually turn to execution:

• Was implementation poor?

• Did market conditions shift?

• Were forecasts too aggressive?

• Was it the wrong team?

What makes it into the strategy

Sometimes the problem is further upstream. A blind spot is rarely a total lack of information. More often, it’s useful data that doesn’t seem weighty enough to change the plan.

To map where this data goes missing, I developed the Strategic Perception Matrix™ to look at information across two basic axes: what is Visible vs. Hidden, and what is Recognised vs. Unrecognised.

• Operational reality - visible and recognised: The information informing the strategy: financial models, market research, risk registers, and operating plans.

• Known complexity - visible but minimised: The unsaid realities. Customer behaviour contradicting the forecast. Capability looking better on paper than practice. Friction between teams critical to delivery.

• Emerging signals - visible elsewhere, but not recognised by the decision-makers: Frontline employees who know how decisions actually get implemented. Customers changing how they use the product. Competitors spotting a specific vulnerability.

• Strategic blind spots - not yet recognised: Assumptions that have gone unchallenged, emerging market behaviour, unexpected combinations of technology, regulation or competition, and developments that have not yet registered strongly enough to alter the strategy.

BHP Nickel West

BHP’s nickel strategy in Western Australia had a compelling logic. The global shift toward electric vehicles was increasing demand for battery minerals, BHP held substantial high-grade nickel assets, and Western manufacturers were expected to value secure, lower-carbon Australian supply.

What changed was the economics. Indonesian nickel production expanded rapidly, supported by Chinese investment and rapid growth in lower-cost supply. Global supply increased, prices fell, and in 2024 BHP recorded a US$3.5 billion impairment against Western Australia Nickel and subsequently suspended operations.

In hindsight, the Indonesian supply surge looked obvious. At the time decisions were being made, it would have been one factor among many: forecasts for EV adoption, expectations about battery chemistry, nickel quality, ESG requirements, customer preferences, commodity prices and competing sources of supply.

A blind spot does not have to be unknown. The information can be visible and still be underestimated in its scale, speed or consequence.

Rethinking evidence

I’ve always been curious about why some information changes a strategic decision and other information remains peripheral until events make it impossible to ignore.

What are we currently dismissing as anecdotal?

Whose interests are tied to this strategy?

What are we not seeing that could change the outcome?

The Strategic Perception Matrix™ cannot eliminate uncertainty. Nothing can. It is a way of testing how complete the picture is before more is committed to it, particularly when something doesn’t quite add up.